Giles Tremlett writes this morning in The Guardian that:
Support for the Spanish People’s party government is ebbing away as concern about terrorism and separatism dominates the general election campaign, according to opinion polls published yesterday.
In fact – apart from the blip in socialist support when the war started – there is no statistically significant trend. Here are the percentages polled by the two main parties since November:
|
date |
PP |
PSOE |
diff |
|
|
24/11 |
42.4 |
34.7 |
7.7 |
 |
|
4/1 |
44.6 |
33.9 |
10.7 |
|
|
11/1 |
42.6 |
36.5 |
6.1 |
|
|
25/1 |
42.5 |
37 |
5.5 |
|
|
8/2 |
43.88 |
35.81 |
8.07 |
|
|
8/2 |
44.3 |
34.8 |
9.5 |
|
|
14/2 |
43.5 |
35.4 |
8.1 |
|
|
15/2 |
42.6 |
38.6 |
4 |
|
|
27/2 |
39.6 |
32.6 |
7 |
|
|
27/2 |
44.54 |
34.08 |
10.46 |
|
|
29/2 |
42.4 |
37.2 |
5.2 |
|
|
1/3 |
40.5 |
36.5 |
4 |
|
|
3/3 |
41 |
36.5 |
4.5 |
|
|
4/3 |
42.8 |
36.5 |
6.3 |
|
|
4/3 |
42.2 |
32.5 |
9.7 |
|
Figures: Libertad Digital.
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Yawn.
Three points.
1. Careful with Libertat Digital – its backers and pundits are mainly tendentious old Francoists
2. Credibility of the latest CIS survey is stretched by ERC winning no seats in Tarragona, Carod’s province and the area most politicised by the National Water Plan substraction from the Ebro river.
3. Josep Callol points out CIS book-cooking in today’s Diari de Girona:
“Reconec que les classes d´estadística no les vaig aprofitar. Si ho hagués fet probablement ara no tindria dubtes sobre l´enquesta del CIS. La qüestió me la planteja un polític-candidat davant dels percentatges que ha obtingut cada partit. M´explica -ell segur que va ser aplicat- que hi ha dos dades percentuals: la del vot directe i la del vot estimat. Dit d´una altra manera. El primer és el que surt una vegada finalitzada l´enquesta i el segon és el resultant d´un seguit de càlculs que aplica el CIS a la cuina. Totes dues dades tenen una certa lògica en quatre dels cinc principals partits que es presenten. El PP passa d´un vot directe de 10,6 per cent a un estimat del 17,9. El PSC de 10,9 a 28,4; ERC de 14,7 a 18 i ICV d´1,7 a 2,5. Els dos primers augmenten uns set punts, el segon cinc i el tercer 1. El que no em quadra és el resultat de CiU. Passa del 13,5 per cent al 30,1. Un augment del 17 punts i tot així és el partit a Girona que més baixa en percentatge de vot. L´única explicació, per culpa de la meva ignorància, és que David Madí treballa al CIS.”
(CiU’s David Madí resigned from the Generalitat last year, exposed by El País for manipulating opinion polls)
LD in this case are simply quoting (correctly) other sources, so no probs there.
CIS are certainly incompetent (previous post) and probably partial. However, while ERC support in Tarragona has possibly been understated, I think the same has happened to PP support in Barcelona province – or at least that’s what my Manchegan bank manager says.
In general, however, the idea that the state stats agency needs to get into election polling when there are half a dozen market parties doing a reasonably mediocre job shows how conservative PP rule has been.